I was perusing my YouTube subscriptions as I usually do and came across and interesting video stating that a Russian publication predicted that the President Obama Administration would implement an armed conflict in Crimea. Usually these types of claims offer and article written in an ambiguous Nostradamus style, for proof. This article, to my surprise, was very concise. The following is the English, Google translated text of the article From December 26th, 2008:
Obama begins the third world in the Crimea
Under the new U.S. President Barack Obama in the Crimea will be implemented scenario of armed conflict. “It is the American scenario, and under Obama the probability is much higher than under McCain,” – said at a roundtable in Kiev, Russian political scientist Andrei Okara, said “New Region”. Expert explains: “It became clear when it was announced that what people will represent the Obama team. These are people whose professional registration – Wall Street. These people are engaged in a technology called” technologies of controlled chaos. ”
According to Okara, after Georgia area “controlled chaos” in the first place, was to be the Ukraine, namely – Crimea. “This is the point of a fire, including global conflicts that escalate into a world war, which, unfortunately, is one of the scenarios, the implementation of which at the moment from the real” – says the analyst.
His colleague from the Ukrainian Institute of Russia Andrey Blinov agree that Russia is not interested in such a conflict. “When people talk about the war in the Crimea or in the hamlet St. Michael, I believe that this scenario is marginal. A question more active economic participation of Russian capital is very likely. But it depends on when the crisis is over. If in 2010, while Russia will be much weaker, “- said the expert.
U.S. ambitions toward Crimea confirmed and signed recently the Ukrainian-American Charter on Strategic Partnership. The Charter provides for the unconditional recognition of the sovereignty of Ukraine and its integration into NATO, increased U.S. presence in the Crimea and other forms of cooperation. U.S. Ambassador William Taylor in Kiev, however, reassured: “The Charter does not oblige any one of the two parties to assist military means.” And he added, if the boundaries are violated, “we will meet and discuss our next steps.”
In the second section of the paper devoted to defense and security, said the interest of both countries to “a strong, independent, democratic Ukraine”, whose integration into European structures “is a mutual priority.” This section reiterates that Ukraine will join NATO. In the meantime, “recognizing the global threat to stability in the world, to prevent them Ukraine and the United States will strengthen their cooperation in defense and security issues,” – said the Ambassador. In addition, Taylor mentioned and concrete steps to improve the level of training and military supplies for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The fifth section is devoted to the expansion of human contacts and cooperation in the field of culture: Ukraine, as follows from the text (as submitted by Taylor), “welcomes the intention of the United States to increase its diplomatic presence in the Crimea.” Format presence on the peninsula is still under discussion, “but it may be a structure with certain consular functions.”
The document also refers to the support of Kiev against Moscow on withdrawal of Russian Black Sea Fleet from Crimea.
The fact that Crimea is the most promising ground for destabilization beneficial both Americans and official Kyiv, observers say not the first month. Periodically pop up in the media, various scenarios by which the Ukrainian “Democrats” try to blow this “powder keg” redirecting claims to Russia. Proclivities pro-Russian activists Peninsula (like attempts to regain the Crimea to Russia through the court ) at the same time severely punished, but to complete victory over SBU “dissidents”, judging by the numerous symptoms, far away.
Provocations on the “Crimean direction” really can not be avoided, we are convinced, in turn, Ukrainian Communists. U.S. prepares to throw to the east (aiming at this, of course, in Russia), but first they need to break the pro-Russian Crimea, ex-speaker of the Crimean parliament, Verkhovna Rada deputy Leonid Grach. Scheduled for next year open a representative office in Simferopol U.S. – the same series.
The fact that Ukraine is in range of the attention of the new U.S. president, analysts have stated previously. Obama will counterbalance Russia Ukraine, said political analyst Sergei Taran: “The first time the Ukrainians may be neglected by the United States, as Obama will be busy with internal problems the United States. But in the long term efforts of the U.S. Obama will resume his authority in Europe, and in the long term, the new U.S. administration will pay particular attention to Ukraine, which could be a counterbalance to Russia in the region, and in the future – even counterbalance the old Europe example of modern Poland. ”
Ukraine will remain for the United States deterrent to Russia, agrees Ukrainian political analyst Andrei Yermolaev. According to him, Ukraine for American policy has been and remains instrumental object that is used in a rather cynical strategies.
Most “visionary” already hard rehearsing for the upcoming bout Crimea : from the opera – held recently in Kiev command post exercise on “Actions volunteer units on the Crimean theater of operations after the Russian military aggression.” Organizers merrymaking (National Salvation Committee, which includes the party “Brotherhood” and “New Force” and association “Northern Brotherhood”) argue that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which will be held no later than 2011, the entire burden of resistance will be on voluntary organizations. Scenario Campaign General Staff of the Armed Forces has already been developed, sure “roleplayers”.
Original link can be read here: http://www.utro.ru/articles/2008/12/26/789711.shtml
This seemed pretty damn contemporary to me and I immediately thought that the article was Russian disinformation. I thought that surely the article had just been written and that the time stamp had been altered to seems as if it coincided with election of Obama. To probe my hunch I searched the Wayback Machine to see if there was a cached version of the article from 2008. There was:
Having confirmed that this article existed in 2008, I now had the urge to interpret the possible roots of it’s creation. Three things seemed possible to me:
• The article was telling the truth that the political scientists deduced from the intel they had received , that Obama would implement an armed conflict in Crimea.
• Russia was already planning to invade Crimea and wanted to pin any armed conflict on Obama.
• Crimea would most likely be a natural point of contention due to it’s 50% split of pro and anti Russian citizens, it’s natural gas that feed most of Europe and it’s movement toward being a part of NATO and the EU. Knowing this, the political scientists hedged their bet by blaming any occurrence on Obama.
Due to the principal of Occam’s razor, I lean toward the last of the aforementioned scenarios. Who knows though? It could be a mixture of all three. What do you think?